There is a little known aspect that could make Iran much more costly to the American people: the body count. Early in the new millennium, there was a military exercise called Millennium Challenge 2002, in which the United States pitted itself against a hypothetical war against a Middle Eastern country. The U.S chose Iran.

The exercise had two teams: a blue team, which were the Americans, and a red team which symbolized Iran, and pitted them against each other. The Red Team was led by retired general Paul Van Riper who would have all the equipment that Iran would have: low flying aircraft, small speedboats, short range missiles, etc.. The Blue team, the Americans, had all the equipment the U.S Navy would have.

The exercise began and General Van Riper knowing that the United States Navy would sail too close attacked first by using his speedboats as suicide attack craft which gave coordinates about where the U.S ships were and relayed it back to the missiles. The U.S hope that the Red Team would use satellite to relay orders so that their sophisticated equipment could pick up, but Riper used motorcycle carriers.  These ships (packed with hypothetical explosives) would then careen straight into U.S cruisers, detonating.

The results of the first phase of this battle were that nineteen ships and three aircraft carriers were destroyed with estimates of American lives lost up to twenty thousand casualties.  The 250 million dollars exercise revealed that the most advanced navy on Earth was decimated by a technologically inferior rival. The U.S and the West put too much stock upon technological superiority to win the day and General Van Riper knew this.

In response to this, the Bush Administration and the U.S Army, learning nothing, rigged the exercise, so that the red team would not be allowed to use suicide boats nor would the red team be allowed to shoot down planes with radar. The exercise was an affront to the ego that was the Americanized myth of power. 

While General Van Riper was a 40 plus year experienced war veteran leading the team, Iran doesn’t have to be as efficient in inflicting harm on American forces. In a region known for its fanaticism, it was asinine for the military to believe that a country trying to defend its homeland was going to play fair. All the Iran military would have to do is to emulate partially the tactics of Riper to get results.

If they manage up to ten thousand casualties and a down aircraft carrier, then the public sentiment is sure to be livid. A battle where a thousand lives are lost will set the people on warpath against whatever administration is in charge. There are no advantages to winning a war in Iran, let alone starting one.